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广西国能能源发展有限公司

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№ CN122928403AInvention
Unknown

基于跨小时群体效应与组稀疏正则化的节点电价预测方法

本发明公开了一种基于跨小时群体效应与组稀疏正则化的节点电价预测方法，属于电力市场预测技术领域。采集电力交易中心历史出清数据、电网运行状态及高精度气象预报产品等多源数据并预处理；构建跨小时群体效应特征集；建立多变量组Lasso估计自回归模型，通过Frobenius范数损失与组稀疏惩罚联合估计24小时节点边际电价系数矩阵，实现跨小时一致的特征选择；利用残差协方差矩阵估计电价向量的条件概率分布，生成概率性预测结果与置信区间；采用滑动窗口策略进行模型滚动校准与对抗异常波动的泛化增强，输出日前至周尺度的节点电价联合概率预测产品。本发明显著提升了节点电价预测精度与对跨小时动态依赖的刻画能力，为风电场站电力市场交易提供决策依据。

❖广西国能能源发展有限公司单勇达; 李育鑫; 罗成宏; 兰江; 李锋Oct 16, 2026§ 1/10 ClaimsG06Q 30/0202 (2023.01), G06F 18/10 (2023.01), G06F 18/27 (2023.01) +3